How to File a Complaint Asking the IRS to Revoke the LDS Church's Tax-Exempt Status
By making that passage of California’s Proposition 8 a substantial part of its activities this year, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints has violated nonprofit law. Because it has broken the law, it should be stripped of its 501(c)(3) non-profit tax-exempt status. This law will not be enforced unless complaints are filed against the LDS Church for its illegal activities.
Please consider file a request with the IRS to take away the LDS Church’s tax-exempt status. Here’s what you need to do:
1. Download this pre-filled IRS complaint form, and add your personal information to it: http://tinyurl.com/irsfilled. If this URL is not working, download a blank IRS complaint form and fill it out. This form can be downloaded from: http://ftp.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f13909.pdf.
2. You will need to include documentation to show that the LDS Church has made lobbying for Proposition 8 a substantial part of its activities. Here are the documents you will need:
[UPDATE: You can download all of these as a single PDF file. Thank you, reader Jesus Christ.]
a. A copy of the letter from the LDS Church Presidency to LDS Bishops, which as read aloud in all California State LDS Churches. It instructs members to “do all you can to support [Proposition 8] by donating of your means and time.” Download and print the letter from here: http://wikileaks.org/leak/first-presidency-letter-california.pdf/.
b. A transcript of the confidential LDS Church satellite broadcast, which instructed members that they must support Proposition 8, set out a detailed “three-phase” Proposition 8 campaign plan, and which reiterated several lies about what would happen if Proposition 8 was not passed. Download and print the transcript here: https://secure.wikileaks.org/leak/lds-oct-8-prop-8-broadcast.pdf/.
c. A copy campaign planning document distributed by the church to LDS Church leaders. Download and print the document here: http://wikileaks.org/leak/lds-proposition8-notes-2008.pdf/. Please also print out a copy of the following WikiLeaks page, which explains the significance and veracity of the document: http://wikileaks.org/wiki/LDS_Church_Proposition_8_anti-gay_campaign_notes/.
d. A copy of this Daily Kos posting which includes scanned images that prove the LDS Church has been planning for the Proposition 8 campaign since at least 1997. Download and print the document here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/27tmvasx7na3bksuq221.pdf.
e. Refer the IRS to this page, located on LDS.org, which includes links to various Proposition 8 campaign information, including a Proposition 8 propaganda video: http://newsroom.lds.org/ldsnewsroom/eng/commentary/same-sex-marriage-and-proposition-8/. This page was accessible starting 16 October 2008, and at least as late as 7 November 2008.
f. Include a copy of the ABC News Story about how the LDS Church threatened to excommunicate a member for speaking out against Proposition 8. A PDF copy of this story can be downloaded here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/1b2kmdia2iq15eeftc52.pdf.
g. A copy of the Salt Lake Tribune news story which states that the LDS Church donated $2,078.97 of church funds to the Proposition 8 campaign. Download ind print a PDF copy of this story here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/ifeqw2picvburmas3jw.pdf.
3. Once you have filled out the IRS complaint form and prepared your supporting documentation, transmit your complaint and supporting documents to the IRS in one of the following ways:
a. Email: Prepare your documents as PDF’s or web links, and send your complaint form with supporting documentation to eoclass@irs.gov. If sending your complaint as an email, you can simply copy and paste section 2 of these instructions into an email and attach your complaint form as PDF.
b. Fax your documents to (214) 413-5415.
c. Mail your documents to:
IRS EO Classification
Mail Code 4910DAL
1100 Commerce Street
Dallas TX 75242-1198
4. Once you have submitted your complaint, please consider signing these petitions to remove the LDS Church’s 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status:
a. http://www.mormonsstoleourrights.com/
b. http://www.thepetitionsite.com/1/review-the-501c3-status-of-the-church-of-latter-day-saints-the-mormons
----------
UPDATE: I just sent my complaint by email to the IRS. This was VERY EASY to do. I will post my the text of my letter below. Feel free to copy it:
Dear Sir or Madam,
I believe that the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) has violated the rules for tax-exempt organizations by excessively lobbying for California Proposition 8, and for participating in the Yes on Proposition 8 campaign. I have attached a completed Form 13909.
I am providing documentation by linking to web sites and PDF documents. If necessary, I can provide this information in alternative formats.
Documentation:
a. A copy of the letter from the LDS Church Presidency to LDS Bishops, which was read aloud in all California State LDS Churches. It instructs members to "do all you can to support [Proposition 8] by donating of your means and time." The letter is available here: http://wikileaks.org/leak/first-presidency-letter-california.pdf/.
b. A transcript of the confidential LDS Church satellite broadcast, which instructed members that they must support Proposition 8, set out a detailed "three-phase" Proposition 8 campaign plan, and reiterated several lies about what would happen if Proposition 8 was not passed. The transcript is available here: https://secure.wikileaks.org/leak/lds-oct-8-prop-8-broadcast.pdf/. Audio of the broadcast is available upon request through the WikiLeaks web site.
c. A campaign planning document distributed by the LDS Church to Church leaders. The document is available here: http://wikileaks.org/leak/lds-proposition8-notes-2008.pdf/. The following WikiLeaks page explains the significance and veracity of the document: http://wikileaks.org/wiki/LDS_Church_Proposition_8_anti-gay_campaign_notes/.
d. A Daily Kos posting which includes scanned images of LDS Church documents that prove the LDS Church has been planning for the Proposition 8 campaign since at least 1997. PDF version here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/27tmvasx7na3bksuq221.pdf. Original posting here: http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/11/3/15369/3779/711/651188.
e. This page, located on LDS.org, includes links to various Proposition 8 campaign information, including a Proposition 8 propaganda video: http://newsroom.lds.org/ldsnewsroom/eng/commentary/same-sex-marriage-and-proposition-8/. This page was accessible starting 16 October 2008.
f. This ABC News Story about how the LDS Church threatened to excommunicate a member for speaking out against Proposition 8. A PDF copy of this story can be downloaded here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/1b2kmdia2iq15eeftc52.pdf. Original news story here: http://www.abc4.com/mostpopular/story.aspx?content_id=FEEE2BE8-BD9C-4314-88BF-E2E60AE2BCA4.
g. The Salt Lake Tribune news story which states that the LDS Church donated at least $2,078.97 of church funds to the Proposition 8 campaign. Download a PDF copy of this story here: http://documents.scribd.com/docs/ifeqw2picvburmas3jw.pdf. Original news story here: http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_10842051.
Thank you for your investigation of this matter. Please confirm reciept, if possible. Please contact me if any additional information is necessary.
Sincerely,
Jackson R. Howa-Morrow
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Dems get new crop of military voters!
An interesting subtext to John McCain’s defeat last week is what it means for the future of the Republican Party with respect to veterans and military voters. With McCain facing a diminished role in the GOP, and Chuck Hagel retiring from the Senate, there are few prominent Republican leaders left with military bona fides. This is in stark contrast to the Democratic Party, which has seen the emergence of a new generation of veteran leaders.
In the past two election cycles, Democrats have added ten new Democratic veterans to Congress. Last week, President-elect Barack Obama helped close the gap among military voters, winning 44 percent of veterans as opposed to John F. Kerry’s 41 percent in 2004.
Now, it will be up to a Democratic president to rebuild a military that has been pushed to the breaking point by a Republican. President-elect Obama will rebuild the military for the 21st Century by increasing the size of the Marine Corps and Army; restoring the readiness of the National Guard and Reserves; and fully equipping service members for the missions they face.
Domestically, the party that rushed us into war in Iraq has abandoned the needs of veterans here at home. It was a Democratic senator, Jim Webb of Virginia, who led the successful fight against the Bush Administration for a new GI Bill. It has been Democrats who have fought to expand health benefits for veterans, improve access to health care for reservists, and cut through the red tape at the VA.
This is not to say that Democrats are inherently more patriotic than Republicans. There are honorable people from all walks of life and political affiliations serving in the military today. But no longer will the party of Harry Truman and John Kennedy sit idly by while Republicans attack our commitment and dedication to our country.
In the past two election cycles, Democrats have added ten new Democratic veterans to Congress. Last week, President-elect Barack Obama helped close the gap among military voters, winning 44 percent of veterans as opposed to John F. Kerry’s 41 percent in 2004.
Now, it will be up to a Democratic president to rebuild a military that has been pushed to the breaking point by a Republican. President-elect Obama will rebuild the military for the 21st Century by increasing the size of the Marine Corps and Army; restoring the readiness of the National Guard and Reserves; and fully equipping service members for the missions they face.
Domestically, the party that rushed us into war in Iraq has abandoned the needs of veterans here at home. It was a Democratic senator, Jim Webb of Virginia, who led the successful fight against the Bush Administration for a new GI Bill. It has been Democrats who have fought to expand health benefits for veterans, improve access to health care for reservists, and cut through the red tape at the VA.
This is not to say that Democrats are inherently more patriotic than Republicans. There are honorable people from all walks of life and political affiliations serving in the military today. But no longer will the party of Harry Truman and John Kennedy sit idly by while Republicans attack our commitment and dedication to our country.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
ITS OVER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
UNION SQUARE, SAN FRANCISCO JAN 4TH 2008
AND THE CASTRO!
Colin Powell speaks of Obama's win
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
Pundits Predict OBAMA!!
Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans
George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans
George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171
Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans
Watch these predictions on "This Week"
Chris Matthews
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 264 Democrats 171 Republicans
Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans
Chris Cillizza
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: 312 McCain 226
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 266 Democrats 169 Republicans
Arianna Huffington
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Fred Barnes
Winner: McCain
Electoral College: Obama 252 McCain 286
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans
Eleanor Clift
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 265 Democrats 170 Republicans
Markos Moulitas
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 390 McCain 148
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 268 Democrats 167 Republicans
Ed Rollins
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans
Paul Begala
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 325 McCain 213
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
James Carville
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 330 McCain 208
Senate Seats: 60 Democrats 38 Republicans
Charles Mahtesian (National Politics Editor, Politico.com)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 311 McCain 227
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans
Morton Kondracke
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 379 McCain 159
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 269 Democrats 166 Republicans
David Plotz (Editor, Slate)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 336 McCain 202
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 257 Democrats 178 Republicans
Obama wins North Dakota, has more paid staff in state than voters... Joe Lieberman thrown to pack of wild dogs behind Cannon Senate Office Building. Washington left without a Bush or Dole in office for the first time since, well, a really long time ago.
Alex Castellanos (Republican media consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
Obama wins Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Florida; McCain wins Ohio and Missouri.... Coleman wins in Minnesota; Chambliss loses Georgia; Landrieu loses in Louisiana.
Dan Gerstein (Democratic media consultant, former manager of Sen. Joe Lieberman's re-election campaign)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 260 Democrats 175 Republicans
Tom Doherty (New York Republican consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 331 McCain 207
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans
Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 53 McCain 47
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 259 Democrats 176 Republicans
Obama will hold all Kerry states and pick up Iowa, VA, NM, Colorado, NV.
Robert Erickson (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 52.5 McCain 47.5
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 253 Democrats 182 Republicans
Obama wins Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia, not Florida... Democrats pick up Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and North Carolina.
Alan Abramowitz (Emory University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 361 McCain 177
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 40 Republicans (with a run-off in Georgia)
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans
Obama wins Co., Va., Fla., Oh., Ia., N.Mex. and Indiana.
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans
George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans
George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171
Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans
Watch these predictions on "This Week"
Chris Matthews
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 264 Democrats 171 Republicans
Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans
Chris Cillizza
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: 312 McCain 226
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 266 Democrats 169 Republicans
Arianna Huffington
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Fred Barnes
Winner: McCain
Electoral College: Obama 252 McCain 286
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans
Eleanor Clift
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 265 Democrats 170 Republicans
Markos Moulitas
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 390 McCain 148
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 268 Democrats 167 Republicans
Ed Rollins
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans
Paul Begala
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 325 McCain 213
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
James Carville
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 330 McCain 208
Senate Seats: 60 Democrats 38 Republicans
Charles Mahtesian (National Politics Editor, Politico.com)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 311 McCain 227
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans
Morton Kondracke
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 379 McCain 159
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 269 Democrats 166 Republicans
David Plotz (Editor, Slate)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 336 McCain 202
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 257 Democrats 178 Republicans
Obama wins North Dakota, has more paid staff in state than voters... Joe Lieberman thrown to pack of wild dogs behind Cannon Senate Office Building. Washington left without a Bush or Dole in office for the first time since, well, a really long time ago.
Alex Castellanos (Republican media consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
Obama wins Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Iowa and Florida; McCain wins Ohio and Missouri.... Coleman wins in Minnesota; Chambliss loses Georgia; Landrieu loses in Louisiana.
Dan Gerstein (Democratic media consultant, former manager of Sen. Joe Lieberman's re-election campaign)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 260 Democrats 175 Republicans
Tom Doherty (New York Republican consultant)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 331 McCain 207
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans
Robert Y. Shapiro (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 53 McCain 47
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 259 Democrats 176 Republicans
Obama will hold all Kerry states and pick up Iowa, VA, NM, Colorado, NV.
Robert Erickson (Columbia University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Popular Vote: Obama 52.5 McCain 47.5
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 253 Democrats 182 Republicans
Obama wins Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, and Virginia, not Florida... Democrats pick up Alaska, Minnesota, Colorado, Oregon, Virginia, New Hampshire, New Mexico and North Carolina.
Alan Abramowitz (Emory University political scientist)
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 361 McCain 177
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 40 Republicans (with a run-off in Georgia)
House Seats: 256 Democrats 179 Republicans
Obama wins Co., Va., Fla., Oh., Ia., N.Mex. and Indiana.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Friday, October 31, 2008
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Obama has Electoral College Majority!
Barack Obama has pulled ahead in enough states to win the 270 electoral votes he needs to gain the White House — and with states to spare — according to an Associated Press analysis that shows he is now moving beyond typical Democratic territory to challenge John McCain on historically GOP turf.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286 votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't believe for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does."
The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."
Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to be predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's been volatile all year.
It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and private polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly one fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said they still could change their minds. It's also still unclear how racial feelings will affect the results in voting that could give the country its first black president.
Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but hadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.
Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the public's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened his grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantage to lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago, even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCain cannot afford to lose.
Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign in the final days.
In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in typically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and McCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and North Carolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning among early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country's sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in these states.
McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows the race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down to competitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizona senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain is keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; his strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.
"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states with our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's lead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."
Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they say they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win but a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.
"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to have many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election Day, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this week. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have a lot of competitive states in play."
Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational prowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was fought out in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the party has ignored in previous elections because of their histories of voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.
As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has shrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely in states that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climate that greatly favors Democrats.
They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North Carolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada. Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which were crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCain could sweep all six and still lose the White House.
Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the bag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies aggressively fought for before pulling back this month when they became out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine's electoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.
Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's sights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, though McCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-class white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican. Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be what allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obama in Bush-held states.
Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of those offering a combined 34 votes.
He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long considered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more toward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four and has visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling shows the race tighter than it seems.
West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after Obama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committee was forced to go on the air this week to defend them.
Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia and North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining an edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama could win them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska, which awards votes based on congressional districts.
There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of Arizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is narrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, even though Obama hasn't targeted the state.
Even if McCain sweeps the six states that are too close to call, he still seemingly won't have enough votes to prevail, according to the analysis, which is based on polls, the candidates' TV spending patterns and interviews with Democratic and Republican strategists. McCain does have a path to victory but it's a steep climb: He needs a sudden shift in voter sentiment that gives him all six toss-up states plus one or two others that now lean toward Obama.
Obama has 23 states and the District of Columbia, offering 286 votes, in his column or leaning his way, while Republican McCain has 21 states with 163 votes. A half dozen offering 89 votes — Florida, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina, Nevada and Ohio — remain up for grabs. President Bush won all six in 2004, and they are where the race is primarily being contested in the homestretch.
Though sounding confident, Obama is still campaigning hard. "Don't believe for a second this election is over," he tells backers. "We have to work like our future depends on it in this last week, because it does."
The underdog McCain is pressing supporters to fight on: "Nothing is inevitable here. We never give up. And we never quit."
Less than a week before Election Day, the AP analysis isn't meant to be predictive but rather provides a late snapshot of a race that's been volatile all year.
It's still possible McCain can pull off an upset. Some public and private polling shows the race tightening nationally. And, roughly one fourth of voters in a recent AP-GfK poll were undecided or said they still could change their minds. It's also still unclear how racial feelings will affect the results in voting that could give the country its first black president.
Last month, in a similar analysis, Obama had an edge over McCain but hadn't laid claim to enough states to cross the 270-vote threshold.
Since then, the economic crisis has reshaped the race, and the public's call for change has grown louder. Obama has strengthened his grip in the contest by using his significant financial advantage to lock up most states that Democrat John Kerry won four years ago, even as he makes inroads into traditionally GOP turf that McCain cannot afford to lose.
Obama now has several possible routes to victory, while McCain is scrambling to defend states where he shouldn't even have to campaign in the final days.
In new AP-GfK battleground polling, Obama has a solid lead in typically Republican Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and Virginia. He and McCain are even in two other usually GOP states: Florida and North Carolina. Obama also is comfortably ahead in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The series of polls showed Obama is winning among early voters, is favored on most issues, benefits from the country's sour mood and is widely viewed as the likely victor by voters in these states.
McCain's senior advisers acknowledge his steep hurdles and no-room-for-error strategy. However, they insist that internal polling shows the race getting closer. They hope the gains trickle down to competitive Bush-won states in the coming days and help the Arizona senator eke out a victory in Kerry-won Pennsylvania. McCain is keeping up his attacks against Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal; his strategists contend that's moving poll numbers.
"This campaign is functionally tied across the battleground states with our numbers improving sharply," said Bill McInturff, McCain's lead pollster in a strategy memo. "All signs say we are headed to an election that may easily be too close to call by next Tuesday."
Democrats privately acknowledge the race is narrowing, though they say they aren't concerned. Obama's top aides hope not just for a win but a sweeping victory that would reshapes the political landscape.
"Strategically we tried to have as wide of a map as possible," to have many routes to reaching the magic number of 270 on Election Day, David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, told reporters this week. "We think we've been able to create that dynamic and have a lot of competitive states in play."
Indeed, Obama has used his financial heft and organizational prowess, a remnant of the long Democratic primary that was fought out in every corner of the nation, to compete in states the party has ignored in previous elections because of their histories of voting Republican. McCain has lagged in both money and manpower.
As a result, the GOP's hold on states usually considered safe has shrunk, and the election's final week is being played out largely in states that Bush won and that are toss-ups in a political climate that greatly favors Democrats.
They include the traditional GOP bastions of Indiana and North Carolina, as well as perennial battlegrounds of Missouri and Nevada. Also on the list are the crown jewels of Florida and Ohio, which were crucial in deciding the last two presidential elections. McCain could sweep all six and still lose the White House.
Obama has every state that Kerry won four years ago seemingly in the bag or leaning his way, including Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and New Hampshire — four states with 41 votes that McCain and his allies aggressively fought for before pulling back this month when they became out of reach. McCain still hopes to win one of Maine's electoral votes, which are allotted by congressional district.
Among Kerry's states from 2004, only Pennsylvania, which hasn't voted for a Republican since 1988, remains realistically in McCain's sights. Public polls show Obama leading by double-digits, though McCain aides say it's much closer. McCain hopes that working-class white voters who haven't fully warmed to Obama will vote Republican. Some aides say a Pennsylvania victory, with 21 votes, could be what allows McCain to win the White House, provided he can thwart Obama in Bush-held states.
Over the past month, Obama has strengthened his standing in four of those offering a combined 34 votes.
He has comfortable leads in Iowa and New Mexico polls. Long considered toss-ups, Colorado and Virginia have started tilting more toward Obama. McCain is still advertising heavily in the four and has visited all in recent days. His advisers say their polling shows the race tighter than it seems.
West Virginia and Montana both emerged as GOP trouble spots after Obama started advertising in them; the Republican National Committee was forced to go on the air this week to defend them.
Earlier in the year, Obama had put millions of dollars into Georgia and North Dakota only to pull out when McCain ended up maintaining an edge. But, as the race closes, there are indications Obama could win them, too. Obama also could pick up a single vote in Nebraska, which awards votes based on congressional districts.
There are even signs that the race in McCain's home state of Arizona — which would be a battleground if he didn't live there — is narrowing. Public polls show McCain with a single-digit lead, even though Obama hasn't targeted the state.
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
South Carolina's forgotten Hero- Robert Smalls
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Smalls
http://www.robertsmalls.org/about.htm
Robert Smalls (April 5, 1839 - February 23, 1915) was a slave who became a national hero when he freed himself and his family from slavery on May 13, 1862 by commandeering a Confederate transport ship, The Planter, to freedom in Charleston harbor. He was born in Beaufort, South Carolina, and eventually became a politician - serving in both the SC State legislature and the United States House of Representatives. During his political career, Smalls authored legislation that created the first public school system in America in South Carolina, founded the Republican Party of South Carolina, and successfully convinced President Lincoln to accept African American soldiers into the Union army - a feat which some say infused the additional manpower that helped the Union win the Civil War.
Monday, October 27, 2008
More Voting Scams - North Carolina, Washington
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/diane-tucker/confusing-north-carolina_b_138073.html
http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org/
http://www.gregpalast.com/robert-kennedy-greg-palast-the-final-investigation/
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93R8IE00&show_article=1
RALEIGH, N.C. -- "I was sure I voted for president, but then a friend told me that a straight-party vote in North Carolina includes every office except president. That made me really mad," Linda Chavis told OffTheBus.
Politically speaking, Chavis didn't just fall off the turnip truck. She is a volunteer "crew chief" for the Obama campaign in Raleigh who did not notice the separation between the straight-party vote and the presidential vote on North Carolina's poorly designed ballot in 2004. "I thought I voted against George W. Bush, but it turned out I didn't vote for president at all. It's an issue today because we're still using the same confusing ballot," said Chavis.
Chavis wasn't the only dumbfounded voter in 2004. A Duke University researcher estimated that more than 90,000 people who voted in North Carolina inexplicably did not cast a vote for president. That's 60,000 to 70,000 more than researchers would expect.
"One way to measure the impact of ballot design on voter confusion is the Residual Vote Rate. That's the difference between the number of ballots cast and the number of valid votes for president cast," said David C. Kimball, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. In the last two presidential elections, the number of lost votes for president was "about twice as high in North Carolina as the national average," Kimball told OffTheBus.
"I would guess that most -- if not all -- of this difference can be attributed to North Carolina's confusing ballot," said Lawrence Norden, an attorney at the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law. In North Carolina, a straight-party vote counter-intuitively does not include a vote for president. Voters must make a separate mark under the Presidential Contest box.
On Election Day 2008, there will probably be more voters than there were in 2004, and many of them will be first-time voters. "I believe as many as 100,000 votes for president could be lost this time around," Norden told OffTheBus.
This year's butterfly ballot?
It is important that ballots are easy to understand. Remember what happened with the butterfly ballot in Florida? When just a couple of hundred votes (out of 5.8 million cast) separated George W. Bush and Al Gore?
The ballot design flaw disproportionately impacts three groups who are likely to be heavily represented in the election this year: new voters, the poor, and the elderly. On the internet, poll workers in the Tar Heel State have "twittered" for help in explaining the ballot on election day. Some less sympathetic bloggers have replied that if people can't understand the ballot, they shouldn't be voting.
"Elections are held to get instructions from the public, they are not literacy tests," said Norden. "If something confuses people and it can easily be fixed, then it should be."
Think of it this way. "Imagine if confusing road signs were causing traffic accidents. Sure, a few people might say, 'What's wrong with those new drivers, those elderly drivers -- why can't they figure out the signs?' But before there were more fatalities, surely the government would replace the confusing signs with symbols that people can easily understand," said Norden.
Early voting started a week ago, already there are problems
"We've already had reports that people don't understand the ballot instructions," a Democratic Campaign official in North Carolina told OffTheBus. Speaking off the record, he said that the Board of Elections is "supposed to be educating voters at the polls, but so far the results are uneven. The word's not getting out consistently. Simply handing out a blue piece of paper isn't all that effective."
Adding to voter confusion, the GOP intends to challenge the legality of certain new voter registrations on Election Day, something they are already doing in Ohio. "This year I think we're going to see more first-time voters -- young people and minorities -- than ever before, and as first-time voters, they are likely to be challenged," sociologist Wayne Baker, a professor at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, told OffTheBus. Baker blogs the election at OurValues.org.
If two percent or more of North Carolina voters unknowingly "skip" the presidential contest, it may very well have an impact on the outcome. In 1992, George H.W. Bush narrowly defeated Bill Clinton in North Carolina by getting 43.34 percent of the vote versus 42.65 percent for Clinton. Polls indicate that this year the presidential race in North Carolina might be similarly close.
The Brennan Center recently rated North Carolina among the six best prepared states for voting system failures such as machine breakdowns and programming errors. The state's preparedness for hardware and software problems improved dramatically after their touch-screen machines failed in Carteret County in 2004 and more than 4,000 votes were lost. "I've been telling less-prepared states they don't want to become another North Carolina, waiting for a meltdown to improve their practices. And I don't want North Carolina to be another North Carolina. I hope the ballot design flaw doesn't throw the results of its presidential contest into doubt," said Norden.
As a fellow Seattleite/Washingtonian, perhaps you can take 15 seconds today to alert people to a potential WA state absentee ballot design problem. If you look at the ballot, in the upper left hand corner there is an illustration of how to correctly fill in the bubbles. The pen in the picture looks exactly like a Sharpie marker. Without thinking, I grabbed a Sharpie and started to fill out my ballot. Thankfully, after I filled in one bubble, I thought to turn over the ballot and noticed that the mark had bled completely through to the opposite side, creating a "stray mark." The mark was next to some judge who was running unopposed, so I didn't care so much about the possibility of that particular vote not being recorded. I am, however, very concerned that due to the power of suggestion, there are a whole lot of people out there filling out ballots with Sharpies, thereby rendering their ballots unreadable by machine. (And my paranoia tells me discarded altogether.)
VotersUnite.org recommends that people in North Carolina avoid straight-party voting.
http://www.stealingamericathemovie.org/
http://www.gregpalast.com/robert-kennedy-greg-palast-the-final-investigation/
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93R8IE00&show_article=1
RALEIGH, N.C. -- "I was sure I voted for president, but then a friend told me that a straight-party vote in North Carolina includes every office except president. That made me really mad," Linda Chavis told OffTheBus.
Politically speaking, Chavis didn't just fall off the turnip truck. She is a volunteer "crew chief" for the Obama campaign in Raleigh who did not notice the separation between the straight-party vote and the presidential vote on North Carolina's poorly designed ballot in 2004. "I thought I voted against George W. Bush, but it turned out I didn't vote for president at all. It's an issue today because we're still using the same confusing ballot," said Chavis.
Chavis wasn't the only dumbfounded voter in 2004. A Duke University researcher estimated that more than 90,000 people who voted in North Carolina inexplicably did not cast a vote for president. That's 60,000 to 70,000 more than researchers would expect.
"One way to measure the impact of ballot design on voter confusion is the Residual Vote Rate. That's the difference between the number of ballots cast and the number of valid votes for president cast," said David C. Kimball, a political science professor at the University of Missouri-St. Louis. In the last two presidential elections, the number of lost votes for president was "about twice as high in North Carolina as the national average," Kimball told OffTheBus.
"I would guess that most -- if not all -- of this difference can be attributed to North Carolina's confusing ballot," said Lawrence Norden, an attorney at the Brennan Center for Justice at the New York University School of Law. In North Carolina, a straight-party vote counter-intuitively does not include a vote for president. Voters must make a separate mark under the Presidential Contest box.
On Election Day 2008, there will probably be more voters than there were in 2004, and many of them will be first-time voters. "I believe as many as 100,000 votes for president could be lost this time around," Norden told OffTheBus.
This year's butterfly ballot?
It is important that ballots are easy to understand. Remember what happened with the butterfly ballot in Florida? When just a couple of hundred votes (out of 5.8 million cast) separated George W. Bush and Al Gore?
The ballot design flaw disproportionately impacts three groups who are likely to be heavily represented in the election this year: new voters, the poor, and the elderly. On the internet, poll workers in the Tar Heel State have "twittered" for help in explaining the ballot on election day. Some less sympathetic bloggers have replied that if people can't understand the ballot, they shouldn't be voting.
"Elections are held to get instructions from the public, they are not literacy tests," said Norden. "If something confuses people and it can easily be fixed, then it should be."
Think of it this way. "Imagine if confusing road signs were causing traffic accidents. Sure, a few people might say, 'What's wrong with those new drivers, those elderly drivers -- why can't they figure out the signs?' But before there were more fatalities, surely the government would replace the confusing signs with symbols that people can easily understand," said Norden.
Early voting started a week ago, already there are problems
"We've already had reports that people don't understand the ballot instructions," a Democratic Campaign official in North Carolina told OffTheBus. Speaking off the record, he said that the Board of Elections is "supposed to be educating voters at the polls, but so far the results are uneven. The word's not getting out consistently. Simply handing out a blue piece of paper isn't all that effective."
Adding to voter confusion, the GOP intends to challenge the legality of certain new voter registrations on Election Day, something they are already doing in Ohio. "This year I think we're going to see more first-time voters -- young people and minorities -- than ever before, and as first-time voters, they are likely to be challenged," sociologist Wayne Baker, a professor at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, told OffTheBus. Baker blogs the election at OurValues.org.
If two percent or more of North Carolina voters unknowingly "skip" the presidential contest, it may very well have an impact on the outcome. In 1992, George H.W. Bush narrowly defeated Bill Clinton in North Carolina by getting 43.34 percent of the vote versus 42.65 percent for Clinton. Polls indicate that this year the presidential race in North Carolina might be similarly close.
The Brennan Center recently rated North Carolina among the six best prepared states for voting system failures such as machine breakdowns and programming errors. The state's preparedness for hardware and software problems improved dramatically after their touch-screen machines failed in Carteret County in 2004 and more than 4,000 votes were lost. "I've been telling less-prepared states they don't want to become another North Carolina, waiting for a meltdown to improve their practices. And I don't want North Carolina to be another North Carolina. I hope the ballot design flaw doesn't throw the results of its presidential contest into doubt," said Norden.
As a fellow Seattleite/Washingtonian, perhaps you can take 15 seconds today to alert people to a potential WA state absentee ballot design problem. If you look at the ballot, in the upper left hand corner there is an illustration of how to correctly fill in the bubbles. The pen in the picture looks exactly like a Sharpie marker. Without thinking, I grabbed a Sharpie and started to fill out my ballot. Thankfully, after I filled in one bubble, I thought to turn over the ballot and noticed that the mark had bled completely through to the opposite side, creating a "stray mark." The mark was next to some judge who was running unopposed, so I didn't care so much about the possibility of that particular vote not being recorded. I am, however, very concerned that due to the power of suggestion, there are a whole lot of people out there filling out ballots with Sharpies, thereby rendering their ballots unreadable by machine. (And my paranoia tells me discarded altogether.)
VotersUnite.org recommends that people in North Carolina avoid straight-party voting.
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